Though its intensity may not be as strong as the cyclone Amphan which had hit West Bengal on May 20, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Sunday issued warning of heavy rainfall and rough sea conditions for fishermen and coastal authorities in Kerala, Karnataka, Maharashtra, Goa and Gujarat for Tuesday and Wednesday. Coastal Maharashtra may face wind speed of 90-100 kmph on Wednesday.
“The IMD predicts a cyclonic storm over the Arabian sea by June 2 (Tuesday). It is likely to move towards north Maharashtra and south Gujarat coasts,” said Madhavan Rajeevan, secretary, ministry of earth sciences (MoES). He tweeted that the conditions may bring “strong winds and heavy rains” in Mumbai from June 3.
“The systems (conditions over the Arabian Sea) are under continuous surveillance and the concerned state governments are being informed regularly,” said the IMD in a statement.
Under the influence of the system over the Arabian Sea, Konkan and Goa will face heavy to very heavy rainfall at isolated places from Monday onwards till June 3-4.
Meanwhile, the national weather forecaster is closely observing the movement of southwest monsoon which may hit Kerala soon. The state has already witnessed pre-monsoon showers in the past couple of days.
“Conditions are very likely to become favourable from June 1 for the onset of southwest monsoon over Kerala,” Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director-general, IMD, told TOI.
The IMD had on May 15 predicted that the monsoon onset over Kerala this year is likely to be on June 5 with a model error of ± 4 days.
It’ll on Monday release second stage long-range forecast for the season, specifying the month-wise spatial distribution of rains in the country during June-September.
Though it had in April predicted normal monsoon for the country this year, the forecast on the month-wise spatial distribution of rainfall will show which part of the country would get how much of rainfall in June, July, August and September. The month-wise spatial prediction helps in planning farming operations, hydro-power and disaster management.
The IMD had in mid-April predicted that the monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall, quantitatively, is likely to be 100% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of ± 5%. The LPA of the seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1961-2010 is 88 cm.
The monsoon rainfall has to be between 96-104% of the LPA to be considered as ‘normal’.
The University of Maryland’s (UMD) Laboratory for Experimental Hydroclimate Prediction in its forecast on Saturday predicted that though India would quantitatively get normal rainfall (100.8% of LPA), certain parts of the country such as upper Ganges basin (northern Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, eastern Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh) and the Brahmaputra basin (all northeastern states with the exception of Mizoram) may get “below normal rainfall”.
On the other hand, western-central India (notably, coastal regions of Gujarat, Maharashtra, and Goa and Karnataka); western Madhya Pradesh, northern Maharashtra, northern Andhra Pradesh, northern Himachal Pradesh and southern Ladakh are expected to get “above normal rainfall”.
The UMD’s regional forecast shows that the rainfall in northwest India maybe 101.8% of the LPA while rainfall in northeast India is expected to be 90.8% of the LPA. It’ll be 106.8% of the LPA in central India and 102% of the LPA in southern Peninsular India.
The University had started issuing Experimental Forecasts for the South Asian summer monsoon since April 2016
“Our forecasting effort has been supported, in part, by the US National Science Foundation and Government of India’s National Monsoon Mission,” said Sumant Nigam, Professor, Department of Atmospheric & Oceanic Science, University of Maryland, in a statement.